I really appreciate this article at politico.com arguing against the soon to be passed (it seems) government stimulus bill. I have been thinking more and more that the move just doesn't make sense for long term economic health. Here are some reasons I have.
1. The premise of all the stimulus is that we need consumers to borrow and spend so that the economy can run well. However, the billions of dollars of credit debt racked up by the average American household are not a sign of economic health in the affected households, and encouraging people toward more debt is the last thing they need. Whether we give people a check to spend, or give it to banks to loan, we are not addressing the fundamental problem of having an economy that relies on overspending.
2. The idea that investing in the nation's infrastructure is a good stimulus is ridiculous. How much of this money will get spent in the next few weeks and months? Estimates are that it will take at least 2 years to see half of it spent. How will that lead to economic recovery in the near term? Infrastructure improvements are a good idea, but they are not an economic stimulus.
3. Back to back trillion dollar deficits (expected if this plan passes, and certain if more "stimulus" is called for) will make long term economic health for the national economy unlikely.
4. Government money will lead to greater government control and regulation of banking, of investment, and of those contractors and businesses seeking to do the infrastructure improvements. Already some are objecting that the stimulus bill requires that only companies who verify the legal status of all employees may receive stimulus money. That may be a very good idea for all businesses, but why tie it to the stimulus? And who will enforce this? Will there be an "Office of Stimulus Regulation Compliance?"
5. The rush to pass this will lead to even more waste and mismanagement than most government spending plans. We haven't really thought this through, but various departments and offices will get millions and be told--"spend this now!" It will be a lot of fun for a few people for a little while, but can you imagine all the investigative reports that will be coming out on stimulus waste and how negatively that will affect the credibility of the program, not to mention the government?
This is a moment where people are slowing spending, and even thinking about saving. That is a good thing--a VERY good thing. Will it hurt banks and some businesses in the short and medium term? Yes, it will. But it might just change the fundamentals of our economic planning and policies to encourage living within your means, buying less on credit, and rewarding savings rather than debt. These would be good moves for the families of America.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
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